Republicans Take the Lead?!!?
Bob McDonnell is leading in the polls by double-digits for the second week in a row. Public Polling Policy’s report on August 4th revealed McDonnell’s 51 percent to 37 percent lead over Creigh Deeds. McDonnell gained eight points over the past month to arrive at his now 13 point lead. Why the growth? Several sources suggest that the drop in President Obama’s ratings has caused a surge in McDonnell’s favorability. Democrats are apparently losing faith in their party, thus affecting the mood of voters. The Washington Post reported that one former Obama supporter lamented that the President’s broken promises may dissuade her from voting democratic this year. Another combatant of Deeds favorability is “voter fatigue.” Reports show that only 42 percent of people that voted for Obama plan to vote in 2009, while 60 percent of those that voted for Senator John McCain intend to again cast their vote this year.
The process of generating poll data is changing, however, and some public-opinion experts are less than convinced that the technique assures quality control and accuracy for the information received. Instead of answering to an interviewer with a script, respondents are now answering to a recording by pressing specified keys on their telephone. Despite this debate, the latest polls have planted seeds of worry among voting Democrats that Deeds may be in trouble. However, with the summer not yet over, there is plenty of time for Deeds to make a comeback and his record shows that he may be set to do so. In 2005, Deeds lost to McDonnell in the Attorney General race by only a razor-thin, 360 vote margin, after coming back from behind in the polls. Most recently, Deeds proved in the 2009 democratic gubernatorial primary that the underdog can in fact win.
The growing support for the GOP is not exclusive to the governor’s race. The polls report that the Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general also lead their opponents by double digits. Current Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling is leading his opponent, former state Finance Secretary Jody Wagner, 48-34 percent and state Senator Ken Cuccinelli has a 12 point lead over his opponent Delegate Steve Shannon. Although the polls are heavily reported on, they are not heavily relied on by any of the campaigns. The candidates devote little consideration to the results, all acknowledging that the only polls that actually matter are the ones on Election Day.
The question that remains:
It will be interesting to see what impact the economy and union contributions will continue to have on statewide races. With the general election just weeks away, no defining issue has emerged in the races. If one does emerge, will it be too late to alter momentum?