Despite McDonnell Lead, Does Deeds Still Have a Chance?
Over the past several weeks, poll results have consistently showed gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell with a rather clear lead over his opponent, Creigh Deeds. However, political analysts continue to caution that Deeds may still have a shot in this year’s race.
The most recent Washington Post poll, which was released on Saturday, August 15, shows McDonnell leading his opponent by a 47 percent to 40 percent margin among all registered voters. The poll, which was conducted in the days preceding its release, consisted of 1,002 randomly selected adults. Among independents, McDonnell leads Deeds by 50 percent to 32 percent. Poll results further indicate that in Northern Virginia, where President Obama was able to edge out John McCain in 2008, Deeds maintains only a slight lead over McDonnell – 45 percent to 42 percent among all registered voters.
Despite these alarming signals for the Deeds camp, the Washington Post poll nonetheless shows that few voters have actually followed the contest closely and many still have open minds. In a Richmond Times Dispatch article, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato warned that the race is not yet over, and that “the remaining months of September and October will tell the tale.”
However, the political backdrop of this year’s race has many doubting whether Deeds can in fact pull out a victory this November. At the national level, President Obama’s approval ratings remain low and concerns about the economy still run high. Most recently, Obama has threatened to alienate liberal supporters by indicating that he is willing to forego a public option in his national health care reform plan. Similarly, at the state level, Governor Kaine’s approval rating has slipped from a favorable rating of 55 percent to the low 40’s. In addition to sour economic news and deep state budget cuts, Kaine has been criticized by many for the amount of time he spends serving as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
According to Sabato, Deeds’ ability to surpass his opponent in November will largely depend on President Obama’s approval ratings and the overall performance of the economy. Additionally, Deeds will have to focus on exciting his fatigued voter base – voters who, after winning many key elections during the past decade, are now appearing completely unmotivated. In the coming months, it will be critical for Deeds to attempt to recharge the batteries of suburbanites in Northern Virginia, as well as African-Americans in Tidewater, Richmond, and elsewhere throughout the state.
While it seems that Deeds has begun to recognize this overall lack of motivation among his voter base – for example, Deeds has attempted to highlight the more “extreme” social views of his opponent, specifically with respect to abortion – it is not clear whether such a tactic will in fact energize liberals, or if it will be seen as a divisive play at scaring moderates during a time when few have patience for such political games. One thing is for certain: only time, and to be specific, three months, will tell. Is that enough time for Deeds to turn the tide?