Old Thesis Lights New Fire in Governor's Race
The Washington Post recently uncovered a 20-yr old thesis paper (the Thesis) written by then 34-year-old Bob McDonnell. McDonnell has since attempted to combat the hype by calling his writings “Old News,” while reminding people to remain focused on what will be relevant this election cycle. Despite attempts to make the controversy disappear, McDonnell has spent the days and now weeks after the Thesis surfaced answering question after question about his seemingly social conservative stances on women in the workplace and homosexuality. The questions have sparked campaign ads on the Thesis by both McDonnell and Deeds.
Has news of The Thesis affected the polls? According to Rasmussen’s’ most recent poll conducted on September 1st, the answer is no. McDonnell now leads Deeds by 51%-42%. These results actually show a slight increase in the margins from last month which placed Deeds below McDonnell, 49%-41%.
Down ticket remains relatively unchanged in the races for Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor. The latest polls by SurveyUSA show that current Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling still holds a strong lead, 54%-42%, over former Treasurer and Secretary of Finance, Jody Wagner. Similarly, State Senator Ken Cuccinelli maintains a steady lead over his opponent Delegate Steve Shannon 53%-42%.
SurveyUSA polled 1000 Virginian’s by telephone and reported a margin of error of 4.3%. Rasmussen’s poll surveyed 500 likely Virginia voters by telephone and carries a margin of error at 4.5%. Nearly half of the voters surveyed in Rasmussen’s poll have paid close attention to the unraveling news of McDonnell’s thesis, and half of those have reported that the writings are unimportant.
“This election is not going to be about past presidents or past governors or 20-year –old term papers or, you know, what I did in high school. This election is going to be about who’s got the best ideas for moving this economy forward,” McDonnell said.
It is still too early to gauge the impact of the McDonnell Thesis on likely voters. Deeds’ campaign has release an ad regarding the Thesis after these poll results were released. Unless McDonnell can prove that he has divorced from his social conservative ideologies that he once held, he may be fighting an uphill battle for the remaining eight weeks of the campaign.
McDonnell is not the only one standing on what may be the breaking point in his campaign. While Creigh Deeds has already seen his association with Tim Kaine turn into a possible negative, his decision to tie himself even more closely to Senator Mark Warner may not prove to be an effective strategy either given the controversial health care debate raging through Congress.
US Senators and Congressmen all over the country have been experiencing a backlash from constituents over the President's current healthcare proposal. Whether or not Deed's strategy of linking himself to Warner proves to be the catalyst that overcomes his double digit deficit or the final blow to a struggling campaign will likely depend on how Virginia voters perceive the Democrat-sponsored healthcare legislation.
Trailing your opponent by double digits less than 60 days out to a man who already beat you once is not a position Deeds wanted to find himself in. This historical fact, coupled with his carefully constructed association with Senator Warner who is dealing with one of the most highly controversial pieces of legislation in congress means that Deeds is working to solidify his reputation as a “closer.”
The common thread between both McDonnell and Deeds is the lack of any signature issues. Simply making vague promises for health, wealth and happiness is not going to win an election this year or any year for that matter. History tells us that voters favor a candidate that promises specifics. Senator Warner and Governor Kaine both promised to improve the state’s finances. George Allen ran against parole and Jim Gilmore promised to end the car tax. Neither of the current candidates has raised their flag over a single, bread and butter issue.
When asked to name his signature issue, Deeds first said transportation, followed with jobs and the economy, then added education, and finally ended his answer by saying that “There are so many issues. It's all bound together with this notion that we restore confidence in the economy." During McDonnell’s debate with Deeds, he touched on the transportation dilemma and explaining how McDonnell would bring lawmakers together to find a solution – thereby avoiding a solution of his own. McDonnell also pointed out elements of Deeds plan that would hurt the economy including restricting greenhouse gasses and making it easier for unions to organize. Deeds evaded remarks to these criticisms.
The fact is, Virginians are hungry for substantive debate and well formulated ideas, and they will flock to the candidate who can provide a plan of action. So far, the polls suggest that McDonnell is the one that the majority of voters has decided to put their trust in, but if Deed’s can finally roll out a step by step plan for jumpstarting Virginia’s struggling economy, he might just have a shot to be the next Mark Warner.
Deeds latest approach is to sure up his base in Southwest Virginia by blasting McDonnell for his support of AEP’s recent power rate increases. Will this attract voters to Deeds that he does not already have? Will this approach expand to a criticism of McDonnell for Dominion’s power rate increases? The coming weeks will tell…