The Tides Have Turned!
Rasmussen is reporting that the gubernatorial race between Bob McDonnell (R) and Creigh Deeds (D) is now “effectively a toss-up.” This analysis is the result of a recent poll they conducted which saw Bob McDonnell’s double-digit lead dwindle to a mere 2 points. Now, McDonnell is only leading Deeds 48%-46%, which is well within the 4.5% margin of error.
According to Rasmussen, as recently as two weeks ago, McDonnell still led by nine points. Candidates don’t just lose 7 percentage points in a two week span without a significant catalyst moving the voters. Most people attribute the sudden change to the revelation concerning Bob McDonnell’s college thesis. Supporting this theory is the fact that, according to Rasmussen, 52% of those polled say the writings are “at least somewhat important to how they will vote.”
Watching the latest debate, it is clear that Bob McDonnell’s strategy is to deflect the focus from his thesis onto Deeds lack of any transportation plan, and Deeds’ strategy is to deflect the focus from his non-existent transportation plan onto Bob McDonnell’s thesis. At this point, the candidate who is most successful at this will most likely be the next governor. If Rasmussen’s poll is any indication, the voters are more concerned about Bob McDonnell’s thesis than solving the transportation problem. Apparently northern Virginians didn’t make up a large percentage of the sample.
It seems as though Deeds is still mostly campaigning on the fact that he isn’t Bob McDonnell. At the debate, he once again brought attention to McDonnell’s college thesis. “I didn’t write when I was 34 years old that working women were detrimental to the family,” said Deeds. “I didn’t write when I was 34 years old that Roe v. Wade ought to be overturned. I didn’t write when I was 34 years old that the state ought to be involved in contraception decisions for married adults.”
Deed’s decision to campaign on how he isn’t Bob McDonnell rather than on what he plans to do for Virginia could be risky. While this strategy is clearly moving voters classified as “leaner’s,” thus resulting in a rapidly closing percentage gap, it is not clear how long this group will allow this contrast to affect their final decision. Rasmussen reports that the new numbers reflect “a shift in views of voters who might change their minds.” Meaning, they are currently for Deeds, but not necessarily for good. This is further evidence by the fact that 81% of McDonnell’s supporters “are certain” their decision is final contrasted with only 74% of Deed’s supporters being so sure.