Special Election: Senate District 37
The special election to find a replacement in the Virginia Senate for Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli will take place on January 12, 2010. While all elections are important, this one has very clear implications looking forward to 2011 when all 40 Senate seats are up for grabs. Democrats would like to increase their two seat majority and Republicans are hoping to retain a Senate seat that has become increasingly vulnerable to Democrat takeover.
While Ken Cuccinelli handily won in 2003 by 2000 votes, he saw that margin shrink to 100 votes as he barely hung onto the seat in 2007. A spark of hope for the GOP is that Cuccinelli once again won this district in the race for Attorney General earlier this month. This race is not just about the numbers, though. Both parties are looking toward a favorable outcome to send a clear message to the other side.
Democrats are desperate for a moral victory in the wake of their devastating losses statewide and in the House of Delegates earlier this month. Taking this seat would show Republicans that the Democratic stronghold in northern Virginia hasn’t yet cracked, and would also hopefully re-energize the base going into the Congressional elections next November. Standing in their way is the fact that other Republicans like Tag Greason (R-32) have proven that Ken Cuccinelli isn’t the only Republican who can win in Northern Virginia.
Republicans would like to show that they have staying power, not only in northern Virginia, but the state as a whole. Not only that, they would like to maintain their momentum as they go after some key Democratic Congressmen later in the year. Their major hurdle is going to be trying to win this district without Ken Cuccinelli on the ballot.
Another factor that must be considered is the candidates representing each side. After conducting a poll to determine the viability of different candidates, the Democrats have decided to run incumbent Delegate Dave Marsden, whose House District lies almost entirely within the boundaries of SD 37. Unfortunately, Delegate Marsden resides in the “almost” part, and will have to move into the district in order to be eligible for the seat.
Republicans are having a Firehouse Primary on December 1st to decide who will carry the torch against Marsden. Voters will choose between three candidates:
Marianne Horinko, 48, served as the acting administrator of the EPA under George W. Bush and is running as a staunch pro-life conservative. The attorney and analytical chemist owns a small energy and environmental consulting business which she boasts will help her push legislation to create private sector jobs.
Steve Hunt, 51, is a former at-large school board member and retired naval officer. He currently works as an analyst for SAIC on a Department of Defense contract. Hunt says that if elected, he will “continue on the leadership Ken Cuccinelli has provided in Richmond.”
Will Nance, 41, is now the executive director of a retirement community and previously worked for the Treasury Department after serving on the campaign for President George H.W. Bush. Nance, who says he wants to change our country’s trajectory, also worked with Prison Fellowship Ministries and calls himself a Reagan Republican. Nance was also quick to link himself to former Senator Cuccinelli.
Since each of the Republican candidates is claiming to have similar political viewpoints as Cuccinelli, the voters will be faced with the task of determining which of the three has the best chance of beating Marsden on January 12th. While an incumbent like Marsden would usually be the favorite in a special election, the current political climate could easily level the playing field. Special elections are notoriously difficult to predict, and this one will be no different. Analysts will have much better information to work with on December 1st, when we find out what the actual match up will be.